On Future Trading
Almost every meaningful decision you make is a bet placed today on a value you believe might exist tomorrow. We are all trading futures — in business, in love, in health. Boaz explores how to commit fully to a future without becoming so attached to one outcome that you stop seeing reality when it changes.
What this edition is about
Every meaningful decision is a position taken today on a value you believe will exist later. That's true of a hire, a building, a marriage and a training programme. Boaz's framing is that we are all futures traders, whether or not we use the language.
The difficulty is holding two things at once: enough conviction to commit real resources, and enough detachment to notice when the thesis stops being true. Conviction without detachment turns into denial. Detachment without conviction never builds anything.
The edition is about how to place a real bet — and how to keep watching the market you bet on.
- Most decisions are positions taken today on tomorrow's value.
- Commitment without detachment becomes denial when conditions change.
- Detachment without commitment never accumulates anything.
- Define in advance what would prove your thesis wrong.
Investors, founders and anyone making decisions with long payback periods.
This page is a summary. The full edition — with the stories and the detail — lives on Substack.
Read “On Future Trading”On this edition
Decide up front what would tell you the thesis is broken, and write it down while you're still calm. Commitment then lives inside a boundary. Without that line, every piece of contrary evidence gets reinterpreted as noise, and by the time it's undeniable the cost has already been paid.
It means you're paying real resources now — time, money, attention — for a value you believe will exist later. Training, hiring, building a relationship, buying a property: same structure. Treating those decisions as positions rather than certainties makes it far easier to adjust when the conditions move.